Delayed Retirement，Intergenerational Care and Fertility
Delayed Retirement，Intergenerational Care and Fertility
Author：ZHANG Shiwei;WANG Jie Journal：Journal of Central University of Finance & Economi Date：2023(5)
Abstract:
The effect of delayed retirement on fertility has long been debated in economics. We examine the effects of delayed retirement on intergenerational care and fertility by introducing delayed retirement， intergenerational care and family support in an overlapping generation model. Theoretical analysis shows that: on the one hand，delayed retirement leads to an increase in income in old age and relaxation of budget constraints in adulthood，which leads to an increase in fertility rate; on the other hand，delayed retirement reduces the need for family care by older individuals and squeezes out the intergenerational care they provide， thereby reducing fertility. Numerical simulation results show that delayed retirement has a dominant negative effect on fertility. Based on the data of 2018 Chinese Family Panel Studies，the empirical analysis shows that the delayed retirement of mothers leads to a significant decrease in the fertility intention of their children， while the delayed retirement of fathers has no significant effect on the fertility intention of their children. The mechanism analysis shows that on the one hand，the delayed retirement of mothers leads to the decrease of the probability of intergenerational care and the decrease of intergenerational care time; on the other hand,delayed retirement of mothers leads to an increase in their economic support for their children. The increase in financial support did not compensate for the decrease in intergenerational care，resulting in a decrease in the fertility intention of their children. The delayed retirement of mothers has a more significant negative effect on the fertility intention of children who are women，working，childless and low-income. Therefore，in the process of implementing the delayed retirement policy，the government should vigorously develop inclusive and highquality childcare services，and strive to reduce household expenditure on health，education and housing，so as to promote the increase of the fertility rate．
Key words:
Delayed retirement Intergenerational care Fertility rate Overlapping generation model
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