Abstract: This paper compares all the macro economic indicators at the present stage and those during the period of economic “soft landing" in 1996, estimates the duration time of present economic cycle, and measures the impact of exogenous shock from the world economy to the growth rate of China’s gross output. We hold that: after the latter part of “the twelfth five-year-plan", China' s macro economy will witness a new round of “soft landing", the flat surface of the economic “soft landing” this time will be lower than last time, and in addition, the duration time of the economic “soft landing" this time will be extended obviously, which will directly influence the development pattern during the period of “the thirteenth five- year plan".

Key words: Economic “soft landing"; Modern recession; Economic cycle; Regional transfer model