Abstract

The asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks to industrial output and price has great influence in the direction, intensity and rhythm of macroeconomic policy, and could improve the pertinency. flexibility and forward-looking of monetary supply policy. The local projection is used to calculate the response of industrial output and price to monetary supply shocks under different regime of industrial out put, price and money supply. The empirical results show that the influence of monetary supply shock to industrial output is uncertain, and has a neutral characteristic overall. The scenario analysis also confirms the above conclusion. There is an asymmetric impact of money supply on the industrial price, not only under different regime of the variables, but also before and after the new normal. The overall performance is that the shock has an effect on short-term. which is however invalid in a long-term. The results of scenario designing and analysis show that the use of monetary policy to stimulate normal under the new normal is not desirable. Its impact on the industrial output growth is uncertain and neutral, while it has a significantly positive influence on the industrial prices growth. The possible outcomes is industrial stagflation. which is the industrial output stagnated, while industrial prices soaring. Therefore, a new growth point and mechanism need to be found from the supply side of industrial, such as industrial upgrading, industrial technology innovation and other actions.

Key words

Monetary Policy; Asymmetry; Local Projection; Impulse Response

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.01.001