Asymmetric Margin Trading and Stock Mispricing

Asymmetric Margin Trading and Stock Mispricing


Author:Lin Sihan1,Chen Shoudong,Liu Yang Journal:Journal of Management Science Date:2020(2)

Abstract: As an important short selling mechanismmargin trading plays an important role in correcting mispricing and promoting market liquidityHoweverits leveraged trading characteristics of margin trading not only promote market liquidity but also cause a lot of speculationswhich aggravates stock market volatilityIn terms of research contentin order to analyze the mechanism of margin trading and investors' heterogeneous beliefs on stock mispricing in China's multi-level capital market under different stock price bubblesfirstlythe influence mechanism of short-selling constraint and investor' heterogeneous beliefs on stock price bubbles theory was deeply analyzedThenthrough Error Correction Modelthe stock price bubble indicators of Shanghai main board market and Shenzhen main board market based on macroeconomic fundamentals are obtained Finally for the quantification of margin trading influence on stock price bubblesin terms of empirical researchwe build the infinite Markov Regime Switching Vector Autoregressive model which embedded Dirichlet ProcessUnder the given prior distributionbayesian estimation of time-varying parameters and regime analysis results of the model are obtained by using MCMC estimation methodThe research results show that: the margin trading mechanism of Shanghai Main Board market has the characteristics of leverage trading that accelerates the release of risksleading to asymmetric expression of investor sentiment so as to mispricing of stocksHowevermargin trading in Shenzhen main board market does not show strong leverage trading characteristics.②The regime analysis results show that both main market margin trading has the characteristics of short selling to a certain extent to absorb investor sentiment changeswhose influence feature on the main board market in Shenzhen is significantly stronger than that in ShanghaiIt further indicates that the margin trading in Shenzhen main board market has greater power to correct stock mis- pricing.③During the active stock price bubble on the main boards of Shanghai and Shenzhenthe increasing positive influence of investors' heterogeneous beliefs on margin trading indicates that investors are more willing to express themselves through margin tradingso its rapid increase can serve as an early warning signal of abnormal stock price fluctuationsThe time-varying quantitative results based on the RTV-VAR model support that margin trading has both short selling char- acteristics and leverage trading characteristics at the same time and these two characteristics have a strong different impact on stock markets The conclusion of this study is conducive to understanding the influence mechanism between margin lendingshort selling policiesand stock mispricing with certain practical value and reference significance for short selling policy formulation and investor risk aversion

Keywords: asymmetric margin trading; stock mispricing; heterogeneous beliefs; leverage features; short-selling constraint


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