The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule against the Background of China’s Economic “Shifting from Real to Fictitious”

The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule against the Background of China’s Economic “Shifting from Real to Fictitious”


Author:Meng xianchun,Zhang yishan,Li tianyu Journal:The Journal of World Economy Date:2019(05)

Abstract: This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which can show the internal formation mechanism of economic shifting from real to fictitious in China. On this basis, it further simulates and studies the choice of the optimal monetary policy rule decided by the central bank, and finds that: (i) The quantitative rule and the interest rate rule have a relative advantage respectively over price stabilisation and output stabilisation. The mixed rule can promote complementarity and strengthening of the advantages between the quantitative rule and the interest rate rule, achieving optimal macroeconomic control. (ii) The optimal mixed-type monetary policy rule can alleviate contradictions in policy adjustment in the context of economic shifting from real to fictitious and restrict the housing price and credit expansion by weakening the amplification effect of the collateral constraint mechanism mortgage restriction mechanism on macroeconomic fluctuations. Mixed-type monetary policy plays a role in stabilising finance and preventing financial risks, while suppressing fluctuations in the real sector, and it creates a suitable financial and monetary environment for guiding capital to flow back into the real economy sector and promoting the coordinated development of the real estate market and the real economy.

Key words: “shifting from real to fictitious”; optimal monetary policy; mixed-type monetary policy rule; DSGE model

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