Abstract: In this paper, we select China's credit balance data from 2002 to 2017 to study the volatility characteristics of China's credit cycle and the non-linear impact mechanism of credit cycle fluctuations on economic growth. The results show that : (1) The credit operation in China changes from "long expansion and short contraction" to "long contraction and short expansion", and presents the asymmetric characteristics of "strong expansion and weak contraction". (2) Since the new normal, the effect of credit shock on economic growth is not as significant as in the past, and the correlation and effectiveness of quantitative control intermediary target on economic impact are significantly weakened. (3) The positive credit shock plays a more significant role in promoting economic growth than negative credit shock does in restraining economic growth, and there are differences in the impact of increased credit on economic growth in different stages of economic cycle. Therefore, policy makers should weaken the objective of quantitative and quantitative regulation, formulate differentiated regulation policies according to different economic situations, and guide the monetary policy to transform from "flood irrigation" to "precise drip irrigation" mode.

Keywords: Credit Cycle; Economic Growth; TVP - VAR Model