Abstract: Based on the perspective of China-US trade war,  this paper constructs a time-varying smooth transition vector auto -regressive model that includes the three factors of real output growth year -on -year, year -on -year growth of real exchange rate of the USD against RMB, and the year -on -year growth rate of actual exports to the United States,  and analyzes the time-varying effects of exports to the United States on China's economic growth. The results show that there are significant nonlinear dynamic association mechanisms between the selected variables. Compared with after the time breakpo-int, export trade to the United States before the breakpoint has a strong influence on China's economic growth, and the size of impact on the US export trade has significant asymmetry before the breakpo-int, but not after the breakpoint. Therefore, the current trade war between China and the United States leading to a decline in the export trade to the United States has not had a major impact on China's economic growth.

Key words: China-US Trade War，Exports to the United States，Real Output，TV-STVAR Model