Abstract: Based on capability approach and research data, this paper built the capability framework of agricultural migrants, employed ordered Probit model to analyze the influence of welfare to counter-urbanization, and verified the robustness. The research results showed that the improved income level, social security, living conditions, social opportunities, political participation and psychological feeling could effectively decrease the influence of counter-urbanization of agricultural migrants. Vocational training, children’s schooling and political participation had the most obvious effect to decrease influence. This showed that the current welfare demands of agricultural migrants have transformed from income and social security to the social and political participation opportunity. Agricultural migrants not only focused on their social opportunities, but also focused on the next generation social opportunities, in details, through professional training to raise their human capital accumulation, through better school conditions for their children’s generational human capital accumulation. Further calculation showed that the effect of welfare to counter-urbanization was more significant for agricultural migrants with higher income and younger age. High income groups had certain economic base, and as a result they appeal more to the welfare; thus, improving welfare level could significantly reduce the influence of counter-urbanization. Most of younger age migrants were second generation of agricultural migrants. Their way of thinking, living habits and social interaction were closer to the city, and their civilization will was stronger, so improving welfare level could also significantly reduce their tendency of counter-urbanization. On the basis, this paper put forward the following suggestions: on the one hand, continuously improving the residence permit system, realizing the equality of welfare, on the other hand, making preferential policies to meet the demands of key welfare appeal and target groups, such as migrants with high income and younger age, and promoting professional training and schooling.

Key words: agricultural migrants   capability welfare  counter-urbanization