Calculation of the Path of Economic Structure Adjustment and Analysis of Growth-Engine:A Study based on the Industrial Structure Model

Calculation of the Path of Economic Structure Adjustment and Analysis of Growth-Engine:A Study based on the Industrial Structure Model


Author:Zhang Yishan,Chen Chao Journal:Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Soci Date:2017(4)

Abstract:In the condition of the so-called New Normal,structure adustment and economic engine change has become a hot issue.While there are many studies on these issues, less studies focus on the calculation of the path of he economic structure adjustment and the analysis of economic engine from the perspective of structure.In this paper,we build a model to describe the steady path for the economic structure.Using state space mode1 and Kalman filter, we calculate the path of the economic structure for the next decade.Based on the calculation,we analyze the new way of Chinese economy growth.The primary industry will benefit from the structure adjustment and will increase its share in both capital and yield.The secondary industry will benefit from both the structure adjustment and the demand growth.The tertiary industry will benefit from the demand growth and maintain the biggest industry place.For the whole economy,the structure adjustment and the domestic demand will be the new engine for Chinese economy growth.

 

Keywords:structure adjustment path; lener index; State Space Model; Kalman filter

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